Seattle Technical Advisors

The Leading Authority in Lindsay Market Analysis

Blog


 
--------------------

---------------------------

Sneak Peek!

 

Take the opportunity to 'sneak-a- peek' at SeattleTA research for an entire month for only $29.

______

-------------

SeattleTA  provides investment managers technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets.

__________________
___________

______

Mapping the Market
with George Lindsay
1921-1942 Long Cycle
An educational DVD



Three Peaks
and a
Domed House
An educational DVD

 _________________

An Aid to Timing
An educational DVD



An Introduction
to the work of
George Lindsay
An educational DVD



5.22.17

Gold


Gold rallied $26.50/oz. last week closing at 1,252.70 and above the 200-dma.  Gold is finding resistance from the December trendline and the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback. Gold priced in Euros (lower) isn’t very bullish on gold’s prospects, either.  Cycles have us looking for a decline into mid-May and possibly as early as last week.


Longer term, despite the whipsaw in Nov-Jan, the 34mo moving average is a good indicator of trend. Currently, gold is above the moving average making the long-term trend bullish. Seasonality is bullish in May.




5.15.17

Crude Correction


    Crude gained $1.62/bbl. last week and closed at 47.84 but still below the 200-dma. BWI (bandwidth indicator) fell in non-confirmation of the rally.


Support is at 45.25. I suspect we will see a run to the 200-dma at 49.00 prior to new lows in crude however, the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback early this week.


The weekly Coppock failed to confirm last winter’s new high warning of a serious correction (chart).


Cycles: An annual high is due in late May.


Coppock Curves: Daily is rising but the weekly is falling. The monthly is rolling over.


Seasonality is bullish in May.  

5.8.17

May 8-11… High or Low?


In the 4/17/17 Market Update I wrote of a low-low-high interval pointing to a high on 5/11/17. 


The lows of July 8, 1932 and December 9, 1974 were arguably the two most important lows of the 20th century. They lie 15,494 days apart. Adding an additional 15,494 days to the 1974 low points to a high on May 11, 2017.


In the 4/24/17 Market Update I wrote of a Hybrid Lindsay forecast pointing to a high in the period May 8-11.


The Hybrid Lindsay model confirms that forecast for a high in the Dow near May 11. The Hybrid model points to inflections points of both major and minor highs and lows so it does NOT confirm the low-low-high forecast for a major high – only that we should see a decline of unknown degree start near that time period.


There have been a handful of instances in the past when the Hybrid model forecast both a high and a low on or near the same date. Checking the forecast for a low uncovered the same anomaly for the May 8-11 time period. I’m leaning heavily toward the original forecast for a high – not just because of the low-low-high interval forecast – but because the patterns pointing to a high are “cleaner” than the patterns pointing to a low and a 21-day cycle points to a high today (chart). Either way, an inflection point is due this week.




5.1.17

Euro-phobia


A critical factor in risk-asset pricing is inflation expectations and inflation expectations are directly affected by the price of commodities.  Looking at the futures markets, equity bulls should be concerned. The damage to commodities is already showing in the Chinese equities complex.


But for now, the (western) world is relieved feeling Euro-phoria from polling showing French presidential candidate, Emmanuel Macron,  leading Marine LePen… and we all know how reliable polls can be.


A contracting number of stocks trading above their 20-dma

…and 200-dma…

… in addition to a divergence in new 52wk highs is a powerful precursor to significant corrections and trend reversals.




4.24.17

Treasury Yields


TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note -  gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.


The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.


Cycles: a convergence of cycle lows is due in late April/ early May. Short-term cycles point to 4/25/17.




4.17.17

Lindsay: Long Term Intervals


The March 20 Market Update showed our Long Term interval forecast – both 15 and 12 year intervals. As we are now seeing the biggest pullback in the Dow since last autumn we have to assume that the 15yr interval is exerting its influence and the decline won’t end until the 12yr interval (May-November, 2017) takes over.


Lindsay wrote that a 12yr interval counts 12yrs, 2mo. – 12yrs, 8mo. from an important high. However, these long term intervals (as might be expected) were the least exact of all Lindsay’s counts. For example, the 2/11/16 low was exactly 12yrs, 0mo. from the high on 2/11/04. If we account for a possible two month error in the counts, we are already in the 12yr interval time target.


Cycles

Last week’s Market Update noted a 19-day cycle low which points to the next low on April 24 which matches the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a low on or near April 24-28. Not mentioned was the date of the next 21-day cycle high on April 28. Conclusion: the following rally will be short-lived.




4.10.17

April Showers

The forecast for a high on 4/3/17 missed the actual high by two days. The intra-day high of 4/5/17 exceeds all highs since 3/21/17. The “rain” isn’t due to stop for at least two more weeks. The Hybrid Lindsay model (details below) points to a low in the period April 24-28 but a couple of other cycles point to a low as early as April 21 and would be within the margin of error of the Hybrid forecast.


Point E on 6/10/13 of a descending middle section counts 708 days to the high of the basic cycle on 5/19/15. 708 days later is 4/26/17.


Point E on 5/5/05 counts 2,188 days to the high of the previous basic cycle on 5/2/11. 2,188 days later is 4/28/17.


Point E on 3/25/98 of an ascending middle section counts 3,485 days to the high of the multiple cycle on 10/9/07. 3,485 days later is 4/24/17.


Lindsay Intervals

A 222-day interval (221-224 days) counts 224 days from the low on 9/14/16 to 4/26/17.


Cycles

A 33-day cycle low is due 4/25/17.



4/3/17 High

     Point E on 4/5/06 of a descending middle section counts 2,008 days to the low of the basic cycle on 10/4/11. 2,008 days later is 4/3/17.


An important/final high on 2/6/01 counts 2,950 days to the low of the multiple cycle on 3/6/09. 2,950 days later is 4/3/17.


The significant high on 12/26/14 counts 412 days to the low of the basic cycle on 2/11/16. 412 days later was last Wednesday, 3/29/17. That would be stretching the margin of error to its maximum.

 

Cycles

A 2mo cycle high is due on 4/4/17.

A micro-cycle high is due last Friday or today.




3.27.17

2017 Correction Continued


The 93-day cycle low we’ve been following looks to have been successful – at least for the time being – with Wednesday’s intra-day low coming right on-time. However, with a Hybrid forecast for a high on/near 4/3/17, the rally off Wednesday’s low isn’t expected to be sustained.


As shown in last week’s Market Update, the long term intervals forecast a high anytime between now and August. However, they also forecast a low between now and November. As the upcoming high is not expected to be the end of the basic advance (point J) which began at point I of Lindsay’s Long Cycle, we can’t use the standard time spans to try and time this high. We only know that there is a high degree of risk in our immediate future.


The chart below shows the various possibilities for the final basic advance of the 2002 long cycle (secular bull market). We particularly like the overlap of an extended basic advance from 8/24/15 low and a long basic advance from the 2/11/16 low. The overlap occurs in seasonally bearish time of year.


For now, however, we remain focused on the expected decline into the 12yr interval. With every day that goes by it appears more likely that the decline has already begun.

3.20.17

Long, Hot Summer

It looks like the Dow is due for its first major correction of 2017. While the expected downturn could be “uncomfortable” for many, it is not expected to witness the end of the secular bull market.


Lindsay’s long cycle is expected to count a 15yr interval between point A (10/10/02) and points J or H. That would place the more important high in the period from October’17 until September’18.


The downturn we expect now is due to the combination of a different 15yr interval forecasting a high in the period from September’16 until August’17 (see Market Update December 27, 2017) and a 12yr interval pointing to a low in the period May-November 2017. It could be a long, hot summer.


The correction may have already begun with the high on 3/1/17. We also have a Middle Section forecast for a high closer to 4/3/17. 

Would you like to be notified of the next blog posting? Enter your e-mail address with the words "blog post" in the form below. An e-mail will be sent notifying you of future blog posts.

"Best Investment Book
   of the Year"
  
-Stock Traders Almanac, 2012

 
 

_________________________
___________________________
Follow SeattleTA on Twitter

Seattle TA is now on Twitter. 

Click on icon

 

 

____________________________

 

 

 

 

 

____________________________

__________________


 

________

-------------------------

 

 

------------------------

---------------------
--



















_________________________________

-----------

-------------------------------

 

<!-- Start of StatCounter Code -->
<script type="text/javascript">
var sc_project=5356765;
var sc_invisible=1;
var sc_partition=56;
var sc_click_stat=1;
var sc_security="e66aa5b8";
</script>

<script type="text/javascript"
src="
http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter.js"></script><noscript><div
class="statcounter"><a title="wordpress stats "
href="
http://www.statcounter.com/wordpress.com/"
target="_blank"><img class="statcounter"
src="
http://c.statcounter.com/5356765/0/e66aa5b8/1/"
alt="wordpress stats " ></a></div></noscript>
<!-- End of StatCounter Code -->