12.23.09

Commodities

Crude back up to resistance at 74.50.  Watch for breakout

Gold closed at 1086, solidly in the confluence zone.  A break of today's low targets 1,040.

12.22.09

Commodities

CCI dropped yesterday to 477.50.  Stochastics (21/14 and 14/3) and MACD are all aligned to the downside again.  Advancing trendline passes through 470 today.  Crude pulled back less than $1 yesterday.  We now see a downside target of $67.  Overhead resistance at $74.50.  Gold found support at our previously mentioned 1,090 support level before closing at 1,095. 

12.18.09

Commodities

Gold took another hard spill today, closing at 1106.80.  Getting close to the first targeted support zone of 1090.

Crude Oil printed a spinning top candlestick showing indecision and indicating that the bulls are losing momentum.  Crude's BWI has rolled over indicating declining momentum/volatility.  3-day RSI has been unable to exceed 80.

12.17.09

Commmodities

Crude Oil got a nice bounce today back up to a declining trendline.  The BWI has started to rollover.  It needs to drop a long way before changing modes to a buy.  Buy-stops are probably in order for short positons.

12.16.09

Commodities

Gold and Crude Oil both tried for small bounces today.  Both are oversold but no reason seen at this point to cover shorts

12.15.09

Commodities

Gold - staying short

Crude Oil - finding some support at this level as suggested previously by DiNapoli levels.

12.11.09

Commodities

The CCI index got a slight bounce yesterday.  We're expecting some sort of consolidation until the index can breach the advancing trendline mentioned yesterday.  Gold holding 1120 support but we're not looking to buy prior to 1090 at the soonest.  Crude Oil may be in the 'kill zone' for short sellers as there appears to be good support at 70.  We'll wait for a buy signal from CCM but crude did find support at a Fib trendline yesterday.

12.10.09

Continuous Commodity Index

The equally weighted index triggered a CCM sell signal on 12/3.  Those wishing to get short may have to wait as the index not only has its post-July advancing trendline coming up to provide support (if only temporary) but the detrended oscillator is now over-sold implying some sort of bounce is pending.  We don't believe the trend line will hold long enough to provide for another advance as the Fibonacci trendline model has indicated a full-blown top on 12/1.

Gold

Gold came down to fill the gap at 1121-1131 yesterday.  Gold is due for some kind of bounce here but there is no reason to think we've seen the worst yet.  Support at 1090 and 1040

12.09.09

Commodities

Gold found some support at todays close.  Slight support and a Fib trendline stopped the descent.  If it breaks through here (despite being very over-sold), next decent support not until 1090.

Crude Oil definitely a short situation.  The de-trended oscillator, however, has gotten oversold and it might behoove short sellers to wait for a bounce.  Otherwise, you don't want to have mom in Crude oil.

12.08.09

Gold

While gold managed to close up off its open it was still down for the day.  Interestingly, 3-day RSI has not managed to break below 20.  CCM on sell signal.  This is a correction in the long-term uptrend for gold but don't get in any hurry to buy as it will, no doubt, take awhile to work off the overbought condition generated during the last 3 months.

Crude Oil

Oh, Mea Culpa!  We broke our own rules recently.  Suffice it to say that oil is NOT in a buy mode, it is in a sell mode.  Having said that, the correction since Oct 21 still looks, well...corrective.  Not changing our target of 89 at this point. 

12.04.09

Commodities

No changes in gold or crude oil.  Still awaiting signals

Sugar

Sugar is looking interesting here after spending the last 3 months in a triangle, normally considered a continuation pattern.  CCM has given a buy signal but we'd wait for a break of the declining trendline passing through 23.13 today.  Stochastics and MACD have all turned up.

12/3/09

Gold

BWI in sell mode.  RSI negative divergences in place.  Good possibility that yesterday was an intermediate top.  A drop in 14-day RSI under 79.62 will be a sell trigger.

Crude Oil

Crude is having a tough time breaking out of that pennant formation discussed previously but yesterday BWI went into a buy mode so it should just be a matter of time.  Positive RSI divergences in place.  Buy on a break out.

12-2-09

Commodities

Gold made a new high yesterday but with negative divergences in RSI, both 3-day and 14-day.  14-d RSI under 78.86 today will trigger a sell signal.  Any drop should be considered a buying opportunity...but don't get in a hurry to buy.

Crude Oil struggling to give a buy signal...but not yet.  Perhaps today.

11-30-09

Continuous Commodity Index

CCI hit 483 last week, very close to our 485 target.  BWI is still in a sell mode and RSI is on the verge of giving a sell trigger.  This index deserves close scrutiny despite the fact that late December looks like a better time than the immediate future for a top.

Gold

Gold formed a big, ugly, black candlestick right at the resistance level we mentioned in last week's Market Update, 1160-1170.  BWI is close to going to sell mode and when it does that will most likely be the trigger itself as RSI has already rolled over and declining.  Longer term, that inverted head and shoulders still targets a minimum move to $1,300.

Crude Oil

Crude has been coiling like a snake since late October, gathering its energy, ready to strike.  We have a number of reasons to think the strike will be upwards.  It has created a pennant formation which is a continuation pattern.  Overhead resistance at 89-90 corresponds to a 50% retracement of the 2008 decline.  Buy crude with a break above the top of the pennant.