12.23.09

Currencies

If the Japanese Yen breaks yesterday's close, there is nothing but a big air pocket down to 107.50 or below.  A falling Yen makes perfect sense with a rising Nikkei.  The Dollar had another good day.  It's trying to break through yet another confluence zone which should be providing resistance.  We wouldn't want to buy this one just to see it correct as that could be a painful experience.

12.22.09

Currencies

The Dollar was up again yesterday.  Wait for correction before going long.

The Yen dropped to 109.71 and into a DiNapoli confluence zone.  This drop is very similiar in size to previous drops during the post-April advance.  This could be a good place to step aside from short positions and await a buying opportunity.

12.18.09

Currencies

Another big day for the Dollar, DXY.  The Yen is showing some indecision (3-day RSI unable to breach 20 again) but BWI hasn't shown any sign of rolling over so we'll give the downtrend the benefit of the doubt.

12.17.09

Currencies

Nothing to report today

12.16.09

Currencies

DXY had another big day breaking through resistance at 76.60.  Rather surprising that commodities held as well as they did.  BWI for the EURO finally confirmed what we already knew, the Euro is on a sell signal.  A rising Dollar should start to drag down equities before long.  The Yen fell again to close at 111.49.  First support near 109.  Targeting 106.  Long-term target 120.

12.15.09

Currencies

Yen is on a sell signal

Dollar on a buy signal

Euro is following the normal inverse of the Dollar

12.11.09

The Dollar, DXY, has had a nice December so far, rising from a low near 74 to Tuesday's closing high of 76.31 (doesn't sound like much, does it?).  We're seeing resistance coming up at 76.60.  BWI still in sell mode but getting so close to it's upper Bollinger Band that it could flip to the buy mode.  Detrended oscillator giving a sell signal.  Waiting...watching.  The Japanese Yen bounced after non-farm payrolls but the BWI is still in the sell mode.  "Technically" CCM gave a sell signal yesterday but we're hesitatant to take a signal from a RSI which has bounced straight up like this.  3-day RSI has shown no sign that we should be long.  Let's see what happens today.

12.10.09

Japanese Yen

The Yen bounced for the third day in a row yesterday, but at this point there is no reason to think this is anything more than a bounce.

12.09.09

Currencies

Another nice bounce in the Dollar today.  Everything BUT the CCM says this is a buy.  We're going to wait until it takes out the previous closing high at 76.39 before using our money. Perhaps if you've got some TARP money lieing around...

Long Euro positions took it in the shorts today as the Euro has now breached both its long-term, advancing trendline and its 50-day moving average.

Japanese Yen bounced as its de-trended oscillator predicted.  Stochastics and MACD still pointing down but they are less sensitive.  CCM still on a sell signal so no rush to get in.  Price target 120.

12.08.09

US Dollar

Contrary to the 'contrarians' the CCM gave a sell signal on the Dollar last Friday and a buy signal on the Euro..  Not looking for a new low on the Dollar, however.  Just a return to the Nov 25 low sometime around Dec 16.  Targeting a higher high in the Euro, however, closer to 1.54

12.4.09

Japanese Yen

The Yen continued dropping yesterday.  Test of trendline support expected today at 112.86.  Possible bottom as Non-Farm Payrolls to be released today.  Both short and long-term stochastics have rolled over giving a bearish signal.

12/3/09

Japanese Yen

Sell signal in the Yen yesterday.  Yen has a history of dropping into non-farm payrolls.  This should be thought of as a buying opportunity.  Targeting 120

12/2/09

Currencies

Still targeting 73 in the Dollar, DXY

Euro gave a buy signal yesterday, target 154-155

Japanese Yen gave a hard sell signal.  Solid signal for aggressive traders.  Safer to wait for break of advancing trendline on RSI which passes through 67.41 on 12/2/09

11/30/09

U.S. Dollar

The bandwidth indicator for DXY has moved to the sell mode.  It won't take much of a move down in RSI to trigger a sell signal at this point.  Downside target 73.  It will be interesting to see if the Dollar de-couples from its inverse relationship to equities.

Euro

Ditto for the Euro but in reverse. Stiff resistance at 1.54-1.55

Japanese Yen

The Yen went parabolic last week but it tends to decline into non-Farm payrolls so, between that and the Yen's BWI has gone into a sell mode, this week could be interesting.  Waiting for an RSI trend line break to tigger a sell signal.  Tough resistance at 121-122.  No reason to think a coming dip means the advance is finished.