By Ed Carlson | September 23, 2010 at 09:37 AM EDT |
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We closed the 1930s with a 2% long bond yield, which makes perfect sense to us since the typical spread between the 30-year and the overnight rate is around 200 basis points. It won’t be a straight line, and based on past long interest rate cycles, which can last up to 32 years, we could be looking at a bottom roughly two years from now. So we wouldn’t quibble with the view that the secular bull market in bonds is in the mature stage. But it ain’t over yet.