In August, the entire gain in the LEI was due to the shape of the yield curve and nothing more. The other nine components aggregated to ZERO in terms of the growth.

And the growth bulls also have something else to answer for: the coincident-to-lagging indicator, which is almost like a book-to-bill ratio for the overall economy and actually has this nasty tendency to lead the leading indicator, actually fell 0.2% in August and is down now three months in a row. When that happened from November 2006 to January 2007 it really led … and as such, there was no excuse for not being prepared (unless, of course, you were not following it). This index peaked in May — pack that in your back pocket for future reference.